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case study 1 quantitative math in health services 2 3 pages

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Quantitative Math in Health Services

Case Study 1: Forecasting

Using the Northern College Health Services visit volume in Appendix 6-1 on page 113 of the textbook, for this assignment, you will be providing a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using the average change, confidence interval, average percent change, moving averages, and exponential smoothing forecasting methods. Use the Internet or Strayer Library to research at least two (2) examples of the forecasting methods being used in health services organizations.

Write a two to three (2-3) page paper in which you:

  • Explain each step in the forecasting process for each method.
  • Provide a brief summary of your researched health services organizations implementing the forecasting methods.
  • Provide a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using each method of the forecasting process.
  • Conclude which forecasting method provides the best forecast, and provide a rationale for your conclusion.

Your assignment must follow these formatting requirements:

  • Be typed, double-spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides; citations and references must follow APA or school-specific format. Check with your professor for any additional instructions.
  • Include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student’s name, the professor’s name, the course title, and the date. The cover page and the reference page are not included in the required assignment page length.

The specific course learning outcomes associated with this assignment are:

Grading for this assignment will be based on answer quality, logic / organization of the paper, and language and writing skills, using the following rubric.

Case Study 1: Forecasting

Criteria

Unacceptable

Below 70% F

Fair

70-79% C

Proficient

80-89% B

Exemplary

90-100% A

1. Explain each step in the forecasting process for each method.

Weight: 25%

Did not submit or incompletely explained each step in the forecasting process for each method.

Partially explained each step in the forecasting process for each method.

Satisfactorily explained each step in the forecasting process for each method.

Thoroughly explained each step in the forecasting process for each method.

2. Provide a brief summary of your researched health services organizations implementing the forecasting methods.

Weight: 20%

Did not submit or incompletely provided a brief summary of your researched health services organizations implementing the forecasting methods.

Partially provided a brief summary of your researched health services organizations implementing the forecasting methods.

Satisfactorily provided a brief summary of your researched health services organizations implementing the forecasting methods.

Thoroughly provided a brief summary of your researched health services organizations implementing the forecasting methods.

3. Provide a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using each method of the forecasting process.
Weight: 25%

Did not submit or incompletely provided a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using each method of the forecasting process.

Partially provided a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using each method of the forecasting process.

Satisfactorily provided a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using each method of the forecasting process.

Thoroughly provided a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using each method of the forecasting process.

4. Conclude which forecasting method provides the best forecast, and provide a rationale for your conclusion.

Weight: 15%

Did not submit or incompletely concluded which forecasting method provides the best forecast; did not submit or incompletely provided a rationale for your conclusion.

Partially concluded which forecasting method provides the best forecast; partially provided a rationale for your conclusion.

Satisfactorily concluded which forecasting method provides the best forecast; satisfactorily provided a rationale for your conclusion.

Thoroughly concluded which forecasting method provides the best forecast; thoroughly provided a rationale for your conclusion.

5. Writing / Support for ideas

Weight: 5%

Rarely uses reasons and evidence that logically support ideas.

Partially uses reasons and evidence that logically support ideas.

Mostly uses reasons and evidence that logically support ideas.

Consistently uses reasons and evidence that logically support ideas.

6. Writing / Grammar and mechanics

Weight: 5%

Numerous errors in grammar, spelling, and punctuation.

Partially free of errors in grammar, spelling, and punctuation.

Mostly free of errors in grammar, spelling, and punctuation.

Completely free of errors in grammar, spelling, and punctuation.

7. Writing / Documentation of research and sources

Weight: 5%

Insufficient or incorrect documentation of sources.

Partly correct usage of in-text citations and references to document sources.

Mostly correct usage of in-text citations and references to document sources.

Completely correct usage of in-text citations and references to document sources.